Last week most of the remaining top estates announced release prices for their 2015 wines. The trend continues with huge increases ranging from 40% to 70%, not a happy trend for the consumer and wine collector. Liv-ex released an extensive blog post Monday June 27th (which you can read in detail using the following link: http://www.blog.liv-ex.com/category/releases/bordeaux-2015-en-primeur?mc_cid=66d7916d9a&mc_eid=d9373685f8 ). In their post you can read how Chateau Lafite Rothschild has released their 2015 vintage at a 50% increase, Chateau Ausone at a 63.3% increase, and Chateau Cheval Blanc at a 53% increase.
Ironically in the case of Chateau Lafite Rothschild, both the 2014 and 2015 vintage have been rated at 95 points by The Wine Advocate’s Neal Martin, and the 2014 vintage (which will not hit retail shelves for another full year) will be about 25% cheaper than the 2015 vintage when it hits the store shelves two years from now. So high price increases for the 2015 vintage are creating some interesting opportunities for buyers if you look at older vintages such as 2012, 2013, and 2014. Watch out for the 2013 vintage, there are some poor wines in that vintage, but 2012 and 2014 in particular will have some much better bargains.
This same Liv-ex blog also relates how a poll they conducted of their top 440 wine merchant members (some of the largest wine merchants in the world) showed that 98.4% of those merchants underestimated how much the 2015 vintage prices would be increased. The group collectively anticipated increases from growers of roughly 18%, and what we got were increases averaging 46% higher, which is more than double what the trade had expected. Are growers getting greedy? Maybe. Is demand from China and other developing countries putting upward pressure on prices? Maybe. Are speculators who want to grab up all the top rated wines to flip back into the market for a quick buck, taking advantage of high scores from wine critics? Probably.
Human nature being what it is, growers will charge what the market will bear, arguing that weather, economic cycles, and other factors all conspire against them and can create very difficult and widely fluctuating costs and revenues, ergo the need to make as much money as they can when times are ripe (no pun intended).
Liv-ex also released another blog post on Bordeaux 2015 release prices on June 16th with more sticker shock (which you can read through the following link: http://www.blog.liv-ex.com/category/releases/bordeaux-2015-en-primeur/page/2?mc_cid=30dad2140a&mc_eid=d9373685f8 . Here you will note that Chateau Ducru Beaucaillou is up 70%, Chateau Mouton Rothschild is up 60%, Chateau Haut Brion is up 60%, and Chateau La Mission Haut Brion is up a staggering 107%.
And among all this stunning price activity, Chateau Pontet Canet sold out its first tranche release at 75 euros and announced a second tranche release at 88 euros. Readers of my last blog post # 22 will note that I flagged Chateau Pontet Canet as a great alternative with a great wine score (95) at an attractive price. The price for their 2014 vintage was 66 euros ex-negotiant, and as you can see the first tranche release at 75 euros represented a modest 13.6% increase, and their second tranche release at 88 euros is still only 33% higher than their 2014 price. Relative to what many of the other growers are doing, Chateau Pontet Canet remains my top choice for those looking to buy 2015 Bordeaux futures.
In Canada, this week the LCBO starts selling their 2015 Bordeaux futures offering to the public. Clicking on the link below will take you to their offering: http://www.vintages.com/futures/bordeaux-futures-2015/2015bordeaux_list.shtml?utm_source=June24&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Bordeaux2015 .
I have gone through the offering in detail, and here are my thoughts:
- Among the big names, Chateau Ausone (96) at $1,250 and Chateau Cheval Blanc (98) at $1,200, both from St. Emilion, appear to be overpriced compared to their counterparts elsewhere. Chateau Margaux (99), Chateau Haut Brion (99) and Chateau Mouton Rothschild (98) are all priced at $950, and this will look like a good price in 2018 when these same bottles hit the retail shelves at 30% higher in price. Since these are near perfect wines, they are interesting, and one advantage of buying through the LCBO in Ontario is that they can be bought by the bottle.
- Chateau Lafite Rothschild (95) at $999 appears to be a lesser quality choice for more money, but then again you are paying for the name. If you prefer a top wine for less money, take a look at Chateau La Mission Haut Brion (98) at $699, rated just as high as Chateau Mouton Rothschild but $256 per bottle cheaper.
- In Pauillac, besides the big names, you can find good value with Chateau Pichon-Longueville-Baron (97) at $249, Chateau Pontet-Canet (95) at $185, and Chateau Grand-Puy-Lacoste (95) at $115.
- In the Margaux region, take a look at Chateau Rausan-Segla (97) at $139, and in St. Julien I think Chateau Leoville Barton (95) at $129 also looks worthwhile.
- In the Graves region, you should also be looking at Chateau Pape Clement (96) at $139, Domaine de Chevalier (96) at $109, and Chateau Malartic-Lagraviere (95) at $79.
- In the St. Emilion region I really like Chateau Canon (99) at $175, and also worth noting are Chateau Figeac (98) at $249, and Clos Fourtet (96) at $175.
- In Pomerol take a closer look at Chateau Le Gay (95) at $179, Chateau Clinet (96) at $149, and Chateau Clos L’Eglise (95) at $139.
- Second wines from the big estates seem to me to be overpriced, with Le Petit Mouton (second wine of Chateau Mouton Rothschild at 92 points) and Pavillon Rouge (second wine of Chateau Margaux at 93 points) both going for $249 per bottle.
So if you shop carefully and quickly, there are some good values to be had. The sale starts Wednesday June 29th, the best deals will be gone within 3 hours, that is why I have highlighted at least a dozen selections above worth considering. My favorites from the above list are Pontet-Canet, Grand-Puy-Lacoste and Malartic-Lagraviere.
So there you have it, the 2015 Bordeaux vintage will be very good, and very expensive when it hits retail shelves in 2018. If you feel you should buy futures to lock in a 30% discount to retail prices, there are some good deals available through the LCBO in Ontario, but you will have to move fast, as in right now.
Good hunting and good luck.
Reg
